Lateraling odds - at just under 1 year of experience

MBA ASO at a NY BB/EB. Going to be intentionally vague with the bank I'm at. Ignore my profile title. I'm in energy coverage mostly doing renewables. My goal for a number of reasons is to get down to TX, or potentially Miami if there is a good fit although Houston just seems to have the most roles. I really like both Dallas and Miami but Houston seems to just have the most opportunity.

The question I have is what is a no-BS assessment of my ability to lateral given that I started last July? I'm fine hanging on for a few more months to check the box at least at 1 year, but my goal is to move before the end of the year. I have worked in a number of bakeoffs and we won a few mandates, just I haven't worked a deal from start to close completely end to end aside from a few credit memos. Because of that, the "transaction experience" on publicly disclosed deals that I can put on my resume is a bit limited so I'd have to keep things vague.

I know the textbook "right" answer is to lateral at the 2 year mark, but I'd rather get out of NYC sooner rather than later. I'm fine going to another IB in another ASO role. I realize PE you really do need 2+ years and that's fine.