I think 2024 becomes a year of layoffs. Seems like 2023 was all about trying to hold on to the talent and hope for a rebound. It was more of a hiring freeze type of year. Hope I am wrong though.

Sort of agree with you here. The pace reality sets in for each and every group is incredibly different. Most groups I know were deploying a strategy heading into 23 since 21 and 22 were so hectic, that now reality has settled and decisions are projected around that and over head and costs are the primary thing companies look at - it’s the lowest hanging fruit. And the people not being laid off are the cheap gen z analysts without an opinion on which way is north yet… very challenging times in real estate right now, not entirely looking much rosier moving forward. What tech or asset class carries the industry moving forward and where would those jobs even open up because of that? Can’t necessarily go off on your own and raise a huge pref equity fund today without the golden handcuffs or umbilical cord… 

 

Utah for sure.  I don't know about their other offices but my guess is yes.

 

I underwrite lots of deals that I have no plan of buying so I can understand the market

 
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People track the market and will UW even if they have no intention of buying the deal. Our firm has UW every single deal in our target markets the last 24 months even though we didn't have equity willing to live to with the low returns groups were stretching for (using realistic assumptions). 

Also, been interesting seeing how cap rates evolve in real time based on how we actually UW, not what a broker tells you.  You'd be amazed at how much variability there is in broker-reported cap rates for the same deals, and having your own numbers gives you a lot more comfort when you actually come across something that UW's well with your own methodology.

As an example, in the same market (DFW), I've seen brokers quote on T1 income/T3 expense with tax reset, T3 income/T12 expense with tax reset, proforma with in-place rents & tax reset, proforma with whatever the fuck rents they deem appropriate & tax reset, proforma with current taxes, and straight in-place T12 or T3 cap rate (no tax reset). For the younger guys out there, if you're ever on the phone with brokers and they are quoting cap rates, make sure you know exactly how they are calculating those. 

 

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