FX - EUR/AUD on the verge of a mega reversal?
The epic downtrend from $2 to $1.17 seem to be over.
The Germans' fear of inflation will probably prevent the ECB from easing too early. Meanwhile the Australian economy is not doing too well, mining is peaking, full time employment is creeping down and their inflation is well below forecast.
So is it time for the trend to end? Goldman's FX recommendation for 2013 is long NOK/AUD.
+1
Been sometime since I saw a fx thread.
its not a joke, always do the opposite of what goldman does, their prop desk (yes they still have one) does the opposite of what their research side does.....they went long euro a couple weeks back..time to short
They are short the AUD too since the start of the year, now look at it..
Their strategy team may still write that they are short AUD, but this has nothing to do with spot desk positioning, which there is no way of knowing unless you actually work there. Honestly positioning in audusd doesn't really matter right now, or at least not as much as euraud or eur crosses in general. No reason to trade aud when it realizes 6 vols a month in no clear trend while eurjpy moved 8% from the first trading day of 2013 to the end of the month.
OP, the idea isn't too bad tho
Personally, I'm wondering how much steeper EUR/JPY can rise before it retraces.
Guys, I have some questions regarding the individual FX trading:
1) How do you differentiate the technical analyses/tools that actually work and the ones which are BS? Which ones should be used and which ones should be avoided?
2) Let's break down the fundamental analysis into two (three?) parts (long and short term): a) What news and events should I follow if I trade daily, every other day? b) What should I be reading and analyzing if I trade on a monthly/quarterly basis?
3) What are the sources that you find truly helpful? Is babypips.com legit?
Thanks.
I'm not a pro, just a student who trades, but here's my take:
2a. Basically economic data releases will cause knee jerk reactions to the market, but it may not result in a new trend. Data like NFP, GDP, PMI can cause volatility in markets and I normally take note of them to avoid entering any positions right before those data.
b. I don't know. I just read up a lot about different economies and then formulate my own views regarding those economies. This is more than just reading economic data, but also important to understand the mindset of the politicians/central bankers in charge. After all, they are the one calling the shots.
Cheers.
Figure I'd respond to the original post too.. what do you mean by the ECB from easing too early? Correct me if I'm wrong but don't you mean that the ECB will look to hike rates earlier than expected because of inflation fears. Easing would imply cutting rates, raising inflation. Also, with the amount of easing that they have done already they wouldn't be considered "early".
Euraud has been on a tear, but as one poster pointed out all euro crosses have been ripping on the eurusd move. RBA meets this week which will be interesting to see if they cut or hold rates steady. Stay tuned..
I mean a strong Euro will certainly harm European exporters, so ultimately if Euro keeps on rising, ECB has to come in to weaken the Euro to make their exports more competitive right? Correct me if I'm wrong.
However, the Germans are very afraid of inflation, thus unless there really is a need, the Germans would definitely not want the ECB to weaken the Euro.
This is just my view because I see that most developed countries are not desperately trying to weaken their currency to make their exports more competitive, some are even suggesting a currency war is brewing.
It'll be interesting to see what the RBA will do.
Cheers.
Who's still watching this pair? RBA has spoken, ECB later. Will probably be interesting to see which direction the pair goes.
am not watching EUR/AUD, but really interested in where USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is gonna go. I think there will be a correction in USD/JPY and the pair goes down to 90-91 levels in a couple of weeks ...
Soros Fund, along with Greenlight Cap, Third Point, and Hayman Capital Management, is betting against Yen: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014241278873244320045783024618737927…
Sorry for off but this is getting very interesting.
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/06/28/biggest-mover-this-quarter-eur…
Interesting.
One year later, the pair is up more than 2000 pips. Original analysis regarding Euro Zone is slightly flawed, but overall seems like direction is right. Is anybody still looking at this pair?
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